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When someone says the word Retirement, what comes to your mind? Is it the age at which you would probably retire or is it the bank balance that you would have or the abundant time you will have to do whatever you like doing. I think it's a combination of all three. Because all these three require lots and lots of money. Yes, in today’s video we will talk about how you can retire successfully and can generate enough corpus that your lifestyle does not get affected at all. Hi, I'm Samarth, for the past 11 years, I have been working in the finance industry and I'm currently the investments lead at wint wealth. Retirement, it should essentially mean financial freedom. In today’s example we will assume that you started your job or career at 22 or 23 years of age. And as of today, your age is 30 years. For the next 20 years, we are assuming that you'll continue your active line of work, essentially meaning that you will retire by the age of 50. Wait, wait, wait! I know you might be wondering that this video was for early retirement.
See the idea is to let you know that what should be the method for retirement calculation. If you are a little aggressive on that, you might retire by 40 itself or by 45. It all depends on your consistency and your persistence. For the time being , we have calculated this on a very conservative way and hence 50 has been considered as the retirement age. So now we'll be focusing on the example and for this we will be looking at the excel sheet. By the way, this Excel sheet that you can see on the screen can be downloaded using the link in the description and also help us know in the comments if you found this Excel sheet to be useful. Infact, you can also download sheet right now and use it live while watching the video. You can change the numbers and see if it is suiting you and how it can help you to achieve your retirement.
We have assumed that your current age is 30 years. And you started your work life or your career or your job around 22 or 23 years of age. You want to retire at the age of 50 years, your life expectancy is around 80 years. Now because you have already worked for around 7-7.5 years, we are assuming that you have saved roughly two to two and a half lakh per year, so your total savings as on date would be 16 Lakh Rupees. How is this split? Majority portion of investment is done in mutual funds. I too personally, when I started my career, so majority savings (up to 80-90%) I used to do in mutual funds. And I used to split them into growth mutual funds and a small part into dividend mutual funds. After that since you are doing a job, you will contribute towards EPF. So we have assumed that this is around three lakh rupees. For emergency fund, you have kept some money into FD or bank balance, which is around two lakh rupees, and then remaining money, you have explored another debt option that is public provident fund and under this you have invested two lakh rupees.
Basis our assumption and calculation, on this entire corpus of 16 Lakh Rupees up to the age of retirement, that is for the next 20 years, you will generate 10% returns. So this 16 Lakh Rupees will get converted to 1.15 Crore Rupees. Yes, You heard it right. Believe me, if you do the savings consistently and in a discipline way, your Corpus becomes massive slowly. By the time I had completed five years in my job, I had enough money to pay for my car all in cash. But does that mean that mean, I did so? No. By the way, if you want to know if it makes sense for you to buy a car or use services like Ola and Uber, please watch this video. Now we are assuming that your monthly take home salary is one lakh rupees.
And out of this 60,000, that is 60% of your take home salary is spent by you. After that how much would be your savings? 40,000 Rupees. Now if you keep saving this monthly, consistently in a discipline way, then you can easily generate the amount of corpus such that during your retirement life, you can manage your lifestyle very easily and won’t be financially dependent on anyone. Next assumption which we have taken is that on your salary you will get an increment of around 8%. I know you might be feeling that the 8% figure is too high but you must also consider that although there might be years when you get only 5% or 7%.
I really wish you never get so low increments, but there will be years when you will switch your job or get promotion, when your increment might be 20%, 25%. During your pre retirement age, that is up to the age of 50 years we have assumed that years care, return 10% on the amount which you're investing and on the corpus, which you already have save. Then after retirement this figure drops to 7%. I know you must be thinking this is low, but considering that after retirement your priority will be to save capital and also beat inflation to maintain your lifestyle 7% is a very healthy number.
One very important assumption that we have taken is that after retirement there will be a lot of expenses that you won't be incurring. For example, your petrol and traveling expense will reduce substantially. Then it is also true that services like internet where you require a speed of 1 GB currently, will come down to 100 or 200 MBPS then. So that will reduce your expenses. And there are many other such expenses.
Okay. So we have assumed that there will be reduction of around 20% to your expenses post retirement. All these expenses have been adjusted against inflation at the rate of 6%. There are many such expenses which are incurred once or twice in our lifetime. One of them being expenses for sending your child for higher education. If on today’s date, you send your child for higher education so may be you will spend around 30-32 Lakh Rupees, to send the child at a very good institution. This we have assumed that when you will be 52 years old, this expense will occur and at that time, considering the inflation of 6%, this will be around 96 lakh rupees. Now that you have sent your child for higher education, then after he gets settled, probably he or she will get married.
Right? We have assumed that if today you got for their marriage then you will end up spending around 25 Lakh Rupees. According to your assumptions, this event will occur when you will be 60 years old. At that point of time, you will be spending around 80 Lakh Rupees. So this also has been built in, in this model. Last but not the least and definitely one of the most important is: medical expenses. As and when you age increases, simultaneously your medical needs will also probably increase. I really wish, this doesn’t happen but it is quite possible. So on a conservative basis, we have assumed that by the time you turn 65, you might end up needing a medical expense budget of around 50 lakh rupees. Right? Which up till then will be around 1.6 Crores, right. 35 years from now, it would be around 1.60 crores. So assuming all of this if you see all this calculation, then you will find that you would probably end up needing around 8.25 Crore Rupees as your Corpus so that you can retire comfortably. If you are able to generate this corpus by investing around 40% of your salary basis the following assumptions, month to month, year on year in instruments, which help you generate good returns like mutual funds and corporate bonds for the early starters, and then slowly and slowly moving towards more of conservative investments, where you can easily generate 9.5-9.7%, then you'll be able to achieve this corpus and basis this calculation, that you can see in the third sheet post retirement, you will see that even after you turn 80 years of age around around one crude Rupe, you will still be left with.
So if you save in a disciplined way, start investments, then you can easily achieve your retirement. Under this sheet, you can also put your other additional expenses basis your age. If you will see we have provided Additional 1 to Additional 8 blank spaces, as when you enter there it'll automatically get calculated and you will keep getting the results. The larger your retirement corpus, easier will be your retirement life, the more you will be able to afford to give to your family and enjoy the moments with them. This is why Savings are important. This is why retirement planning is important. And if you're worried to know how you can make your portfolio stronger and better in this video, we have discussed few revenue streams, which will help you generate passive income along with maintaining the safety of your portfolio until you meet next time. Happy Winting!
What are we doing here? What's going on?
>>What are we doing here? >>This is a super-simple game. We're fishing for advice. Give me that.
>>See, I chose the right outfit today.
Yeah. [Fishing for Advice With Financial Advisers] I know you guys are probably thinking
I'm a professional fisherman, but I'm not. I'm a financial coach. You are 50 years old and have not started
saving for retirement. What is the first thing you do? Panic! No, I'm just kidding. So, at 50 years old, that is a big
wake-up call for a lot of people, and the very first thing you do is take stock of where your money is going today, because
you are gonna need to seriously amp up your saving.
So, not everybody needs to
have some giant savings. You need to have enough to replace the amount of income
you're gonna spend in retirement. I'm gonna just cheat a little, because I'm
really embarrassed. So I would just take a minute to assess my full
financial picture and actually sit down with the numbers to take financial
inventory. So I think step 1 is just going through what are all the
accounts I have, what is everything I own, what's the value of everything I own, and
then making another list of everything that I owe. And then from there you can
be like, "OK, well, this is the money that I actually do have, and so maybe there's a
better way for me to maximize this for my retirement." I feel like 50 is the new 20 or
30, you know, still not too late.
Yeah, don't think that it's over.
Consider it like a halftime. This is where you go
into the locker room and you look at what you did in the first half and what
can be done better for the second half. You come up with a new strategy, a new game plan, and then you go out into the second half,
and you prepare to win the game. [Cheering] I have to say this is the weirdest game
I've ever played at a FinCon. You're 50 years old — I am 50 years old — and
have not started saving for retirement. What's the first thing you do? You breathe, and you don't panic, and you start now. What you should not do is
think, "Well, it's too late now, so let's just see what happens in the next 20, 30
years." Because that is going to lead to disaster.
You still have time to turn this around,
but you have to get serious about this now. So you would talk to a
financial planner, come up with a game plan of how you can reduce your spending,
how you could put extra money into savings, and how you can kind of catch up. Once you've found the money, you are gonna automate the flows into those IRAs and 401(k)s, because if you don't automate it, you're gonna force
yourself to go through this exercise again and again, but if you set it and
forget it, you will continue to make headway. All right, here we go. It’s why I got this net, man. The first thing I want you to do, I want you to take positive action.
I want you to look around this minute, right now, and make a decision on some things you're gonna change. And it might be your attitude, it might be
the way that you're spending money, it might be the way that you're even looking at money. Be positive.
You know, it's not over till it's over. You can do it, you just have to start
doing it right now. Whoops! All right, everyone, listen. Gaining
information is absolutely imperative. It keeps you aware and it keeps you motivated. So be sure to subscribe to AARP's YouTube channel. OK, come on. All right. I'm just gonna pick these
fish up. OK! [Laughter].
there's 10 000 people turn in 65 every day and one half of this population is reaching this age on their own so you're not alone in this phase you need to know that you aren't alone but retiring solo does increase your risk of actually being lonely which can have detrimental impact on your health today we're going to talk about retiring alone or the new buzzword of solo retirement so if you're watching this and you say well that doesn't apply to me and you're a woman stay tuned the reason i say that is unfortunately seven out of ten or seventy percent of baby boomer aged women actually outlive their husbands what are you gonna do with that why are you laughing what are you gonna do without me i don't know what i'll do with that party anyway there's 10 000 people turning 65 every day and one half of this population is reaching this age on their own so you're not alone in this phase you need to know that you aren't alone but retiring solo does increase your risk of actually being lonely which can have detrimental impact on your health so this idea of emotional loneliness you know that people over 65 who suffer from that they have an 18 increase in their mortality rates which is scary so today we'll give you seven strategies to help ward off loneliness and overcome isolation to live a more fulfilling life as a solo retiree so here's the first strategy and this is really important overcoming your financial insecurities now if you are a single woman now or a single person and you're retiring and you don't really have a handle on your finances that's a problem and you're going to be stuck and stifled and not be able to move forward so you need to hire a financial planner and understand your finances and frankly if you're a couple watching this and one of the two of you really gets finances well and the other one doesn't that's not a good place to be no if you're listening to this both of you should pay attention and share the financial information as well as the financial burdens now because ultimately if you listen to that first statistic if you're a woman 70 of us will end up as a solo retiree outliving our partner that's just the medical history that's just the facts you know there are friends down the street who purchased the house from this elderly couple and unfortunately her husband passed away and she decided she wanted to downsize she went to sell the house they got all the way down the road to the closing right and realized he had never changed the title of the house so it took another three months to close and it's just because she had no idea they weren't really sharing the information so it is really important yep so get your finances in order we're not financial planners but definitely find one that was strategy number one strategy number two create a small support group of peers like mark said you're not alone there are many other people in the same place and you want to be able to share your struggles and successes with them yeah because it's it's tough to be alone and it's tough to really be alone but if you can be alone with another person who's alone then you're not alone anymore right that makes sense right kind of yeah good theory i mean you could do weekly coffee you know pick up a class or do some exercise or even just take a long walk it's important to make sure that you connect and have a group of peers yeah relationships are key and having a support group really helps so strategy three is along the lines of that but we're really suggesting that every day you talk to someone on the phone and person whatever it might be make sure you have a conversation with another human being every single day and it might make sense to make a list of people that you can call absolutely makes sense you know friends and family and neighbors you know and never feel like you're imposing and like mark said don't let a day go by that you're not involved in a conversation now it's always better in person because it feels better but if you can't be in person bad weather you know covet kept us all locked up a little bit at least call but be there and frankly what's helpful is not only for you to reach out to get some communication help but be the one supporting other people that's a great way to start having some conversations in a peer group that you're leading it so connect with someone every day strategy number four have a daily plan and a schedule something that adds structure to your life so that you're not always wondering what am i going to do today what's the morning going to be like how am i going to make it through the afternoon really set the tone from the day in the morning now good habits and routines are important and i know a lot of people that like to get up they've worked their whole life and they're retired now and they want to get up and just have a cup of coffee and watch tv watch a little more tv have some more coffee but before you know it it's 11 o'clock and you haven't talked to anybody and you really haven't done much so setting some schedule and some time some self-care time with friends and frankly limit tv i mean i you know watching tv every morning from 7 a.m till noon it's not healthy no but you could even schedule some time to learn to pick up a class to go to the library to read to children to find things in your community that you could do to be helpful and that makes you not alone and isolated so here's the fifth strategy and you've heard this from us so many times and it just makes so much sense this one does come up in a lot of our videos because it helps in so many areas of your life the fifth strategy is exercise every single day move your body move it get up and move it do you know that if you walk 20 minutes a day every day for 20 minutes you can add five years to your life so what about walking with a friend and 20 minutes that's easy walk for 30 minutes with someone and have a chat and catch up so you're now you're exercising and you're communicating with someone you know as we all age movement does become harder but you need to be as active as you can and just know that you can do 20 minutes a day so we hope you do that take it seriously so now let's talk about strategy number six volunteering you know there's so many benefits with volunteering and it's become such a huge part of our retirement transformation program and you know we do bring it up a lot volunteering sharing your wisdom creating your community you know providing yourself with fulfillment sharing and searching your passions we bring that up a lot but it does help with this loneliness and the potential for isolation you know you instantly can find a community of people when you start to volunteer and it could be as basic as working at the local food bank or the library or something but you're going to find dozens of other people in the same position you are in looking for communities so it's really important to give this a shot absolutely strategy number seven would be to try new things learn technology mark and i did a talk one day and there was a bunch of people in the room and one lady raised her hand talking because we were bringing up this strategy about learning technology her name was ava she raised her hand and she talked about the world that technology opened to her allowing her to connect with her family over in italy and how they structured it how she learned face time how she learned zoom how she learned to be able to work all of the technology in her house to really ward off that loneliness and you know how she did it remember her story she got one of her grandchildren to sit with her and work on the iphone with her to learn how to do face time she couldn't believe in her mind that it could happen and then in the end how easy it was for her right so but it really made her feel connected and less lonely and i think utilizing technology in that way is really smart and learn from a younger person it's nice in a community to have people your own age and people younger so and while you're learning technology look for online courses that are out there look for some online learning that can engage you i did that when i went to the university of pennsylvania and i took an entire online online course and i got to zoom in with other kids college kids college kids and i was the old lady but that was great and i made a lot of great contacts doing that no a big thing to remember is you're not alone you can ward off this loneliness but you need to be proactive work on the seven strategies we just mentioned above and listen if you enjoy this please share with your friends and also please subscribe by clicking the subscribe button below don't forget to join our free facebook community the link is down below and it's very interactive where jody and i go live each week you get to ask questions and we can communicate with each other and thanks for listening and we look forward to seeing you againRead More
foreign welcome back to the retirement income show I'm Mark Elliott here with the CEO and founder of Oak Harvest Finance group we're talking about the retirement success plan once it's in place it's not done it's not finished it's always changing and evolving with you and your life so it's really important to get this in place to have a plan give you more confidence and and be more comfortable in retirement with maybe hopefully not so much stress about where you are again that number is 800-822-6434 to learn more 800-822-6434 Troy's breaking down what is exactly the retirement success plan so it starts with the investment plan then it's the income plan then it's a tax plan then it's a health plan and then it is the estate plan so I want to kind of tie together why that sequence is is important just briefly but if you don't understand if you don't have a proper risk management structure in place obviously you open the potential for losses beyond your willingness to stay the course now it's not just stay the course with the Investments it's stay the course with your retirement success plan with your financial plan so we have to Define what those guard rails are first this is the process of understanding where your risk limitations are so if you think about you're going down a highway and of course you have guard rails on each side and if you go off the highway those guard rails are there to protect you from going into the opposing Direction on the freeway now in retirement when we're talking about managing risk when we can identify these emotional guardrails so are you willing to see and I and I'd like to Define risk in terms of dollars not percentages and I'll tell you why in a minute but let's say you have a million dollars saved for retirement if all that money is in your 401k first and foremost we have to realize that it's not really a million dollars because every dollar in there is tax deferred so we have to understand we're going to address that as part of this process but when we talk about risk we have to understand that not all of those dollars are yours you have a junior partner on that account we want to keep them a junior partner we don't want Uncle Sam to become a senior partner or a majority share owner of your retirement account but just understanding that that not all of that money is yours that you do have a junior partner in that account it ties into this risk management discussion a little bit so when we talk about risk in terms of dollars are you willing to see your account go down two hundred thousand just a question could be yes could be no it doesn't there is no right or wrong answer but by asking these questions we can start to Define where your emotional guard rails are because the number one thing that you can do when it comes to ruining a financial plan or a retirement plan is to have more risks so your accounts go down more than you can mentally tolerate emotionally withstand and then you sell get out sit in cash for two or three years miss the rebound and now you're you're in a you know you're in a bad bad bad spot I can't tell you I mean we've been through this so many times with clients and conversations about you know Troy I've been watching the news I think we're going into recession we need to get out of the market we need to do this or my accounts are down 10 or 20 or when covid hit we there's a plan for for a proper plan accounts for the markets being down 20 or 30 percent so when we talk about risk management and we're asking you these questions the reason why is because we're already planning for recessions we're planning for potential Market crashes this is part of life okay we cannot avoid these things unless we completely stay in cash and if that's the case you might as well bury the money in the backyard and just spend whatever you can and hope you don't run out and eat rice and beans for for for retirement and that's not how most of our clients that's not how most of you want to spend you know after working for an entire career you want to spend your life so are you okay with a 200 000 decline by the way which is 20 and the reason why I Define it in terms of dollars is because a long time ago I had a client come in well it was a prospective client at the time and like most financial advisors we would talk about it in terms of percentages and and we said are you okay with a 10 or 20 decline he said you know what 20 is pretty much my Max and he had around a million dollars so then I I just happened to put it in terms of dollars and I said okay so if your accounts go down two hundred thousand dollars you're okay with that and he said he said no Troy he said I would fire you on the spot and so that you know for me it connected a Big Dot It was kind of a big evolution in my career when I was younger because I realized I'm a financial guy I do this every single day I think in terms of percentages and statistics and and but most people think in terms of dollars so when we ask you that question you say yes I'm okay with a 200 000 or 100 000 or maybe it's not even close to that or maybe it's much much much more what that does for us is it helps to Define what type of portfolio we need to construct so emotionally there's a small probability that it is going to hit your your downside guard ramp and if we can go through retirement and not ever hit that downside guard rail well there's a very good chance from our experience that you're going to stay the course you're going to stick with your plan and if you can stick with your plan you have a much higher probability of success in retirement this is why we call it the retirement success process this is why we call it a retirement success plan this is what we want to deliver to you so now I said I wanted to talk a little bit about the sequence and why risk management in investment planning comes first if we don't and in most simple terms if if your money let's say you have a million bucks and you never had to take anything out if you average four percent versus nine percent at higher rates of return you obviously can expect your accounts to grow to a larger value that means the income planning is impacted that also means that now your tax planning is impacted so we can't build an income plan or a tax plan without first understanding an estimated reasonable expected return for a combination of Securities inside a portfolio so step one has to be this risk management discussion which then can lead us to the investment construction of your portfolio which then gives us a pretty good idea of expected return upside downside deviation so we can now start talking about income planning we can actually project and do a sensitivity analysis on tax planning based on different account levels let me break that down for you before we get into the tax planning section later on the show if you have a million dollars in your IRA you are forced to start taking a certain percentage out it's around four percent at age 72 but as you get to be 74 76 77 you're required to distribute a larger and larger percentage so if your million grows to 1.5 you take let's say four percent of that out that's a that's a number that is less than if your IRA grows to 2 million so the more aggressive your portfolio is or the higher expected return the more we should anticipate that require minimum distribution being a larger number that rmd is the amount you're forced to take out and pay taxes on we've seen clients I I'd like to phrase this for prospective clients because we address this with you as a client this is part of the retirement success process and the retirement success plan but so often when someone comes in here and they've done a pretty good job saving they have eight hundred thousand they have a million they have two or three million when we start to do this analysis if you don't address this tax problem and it is a tax problem it can be you know a tax nightmare for many of you those rmds when we get out to be 75 and 77 or 78 a hundred thousand hundred and fifty thousand two hundred thousand now you're taking that money out you're probably not spending that much on top of Social Security on top of any rental income or real estate income or pension or dividend or interest or any other income that you have outside of your retirement account and we've seen many people be in a much higher tax bracket and have much more income in their 80s than they ever had throughout their entire life up to that point and it's because of a lack of planning so that's what we're trying to get ahead of so we have to understand the risk structure of our portfolio and how we manage that risk so we can keep you on course we can keep you on schedule with your plan that then gives us an idea of a range of expected returns based on basic financial planning Concepts from there we can develop that income strategy and income is not just Social Security it's not just how much to take out don't get me started on the four percent rule but it is also from which accounts and then we get into the taxes so if you don't have a retirement success plan give us a call 1-800-822-6434 we're going to walk you through this process if you become a client you will have this plan in place that deals with risk Investments taxes income along with the rest of the retirement success plan 1-800-822-6434 Oak Harvest Financial Group check out the website check out the YouTube channel Oak Harvest Financial Group so we're talking about the retirement success plan Troy still got a lot to get to stay with us we're back in one minute investment advisory services offered through Oak Harvest Financial Group LLC Oak Harbor's Financial Group is an independent Financial Services firm that helps people create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products investing involves risk including the loss of principal any references to protection benefits or lifetime income generally refer to fixed Insurance products never Securities or investment products insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company Oak Harbor's Financial Group LLC is not permitted to offer a No statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice you should speak to a qualified professional before making any decisions about your personal situation we are not affiliated with the US government or any governmental agency this radio show is a paid placement foreign [Music]Read More
Even if it's my goal to continue working longer, what would I do for healthcare, for example, if for some reason I'm not able to continue working until I'm Medicare eligible? What is a safe withdrawal rate for me from my investment portfolio if I need to retire earlier than I expected to? Morningstar's Personal Finance Guru joins us for part two of our Building and Better retirement series on Consuelo Mack WEALTHTRACK. Announcer: Funding provided by ClearBridge Investments, First Eagle Investments, Royce Investment Partners, Baird, Matthews Asia, Strategas Asset Management and Women Investing in Security and Education. Mack: Hello and welcome to this edition of WEALTHTRACK. I'm Consuelo Mack. There are few tasks more fraught with financial challenges and anxiety than planning for retirement and replacing a work paycheck with one from savings, ostensibly to last a lifetime. It's especially daunting against the backdrop of 2022's broad-based market decline and the new era of higher inflation, rising interest rates and the threat of recession.
This week's guest describes herself as being passionate about simplifying retirement portfolio planning. Amen to that! She is Christine Benz, Morningstar's widely followed and admired Director of Personal Finance, a position she has held since 2008. She is here for the second of our two-part series on Building a Better Retirement. If you missed the first installment, you can see it on wealthtrack.com. Well, this week Benz is discussing retirement blind spots. She has identified six of them and she's going to help us fix them. The retirement blind spots are: retirement date risk, sequence-of-return risk, low-yield risk, inflation risk, health care / long-term care risk and longevity risk. She certainly ticked all of my boxes. Now, how to mitigate those risks and what steps to take to solve them. I asked Benz to address them one by one, starting with retirement date risk. How big a problem is it? Benz: Well, this is simply that we tend to not be great judges of when we might retire. So there was a survey that Pew Research did several years ago where they asked pre-retirees approximately when they thought they might retire.
And one trend that you see in the data is that people tended to think that they would be able to work longer than they were actually able to work. So many people identified kind of in the period from 70 to 75 as the period when they thought they might hang it up. Well, in reality, when they tracked those same folks about their actual retirement dates, they found that people were not able to delay retirement that long. So the short answer is that we tend to not be great judges of when we might retire. And there are a few reasons why this is the case. One is the health situation, either our own health or our spouse's health or parental health may pull us out of the workforce. We know that ageism is a thing in our culture.
We know that some folks who might have the intention of continuing to work may not be able to. They may have a job that's physically untenable to continue to do later in life. So there are a lot of things that can complicate someone's plans to work longer, which is one reason why I get very nervous when I talk to older adults who say, Well, my plan is to continue working until I'm 70 or 75 or whatever it is.
As Morningstar contributor Mark Miller often says, that's a worthy aspiration. It's not a plan. Mack: So how do you resolve that? Clearly you can't anticipate it unless you're self-employed, in which case you're the one who's going to fire yourself. So that's right. There are some people – or keep your business going, whatever it is. Benz: Well, it's tricky, but the key thing is that you need to stay flexible. And I think for older adults, it's really valuable to kind of have a contingency plan in mind. Even if it's my goal to continue working longer, what would I do for health care, for example, if for some reason I'm not able to continue working until I'm Medicare eligible? What is a safe withdrawal rate for me from my investment portfolio if I need to retire earlier than I expected to? What would I draw upon if I needed to pull from my portfolio? Do I have safe liquid reserves that I could draw upon if I were shoved out of the workforce in a year like 2022 when stocks and bonds went down at the same time? So I think you want to kind of build up, build in that contingency plan.
And then also top of mind is have a backup plan for some other form of work and maybe it's consulting in your field that you've built your career in. Maybe it's a completely different career path. But if you can find some sort of paid remuneration to tide you over in those early retirement years, that can go a long way toward helping your plan last and helping ensure that you're not having to invade your portfolio when it's at a low ebb. Mack: In part one of this series on building a better, more resilient retirement plan, and you've certainly talked about how to handle that from an investment point of view.
So I just want our audience to know that, and they can see that on wealthtrack.com. The next blind spot that you mentioned is sequence-of-return risk. So explain that. And it certainly is, you know, uppermost in our minds after what happened with the markets in 2022. Benz: Sequence-of-return risk is something that retirement researchers really worry about. And this is basically the odds that early on in your retirement, often when your portfolio is at its largest, you encounter a really bad market environment that either features dropping bond prices, falling stock prices, high inflation.
Well of course, we had all of that come into play in 2022. And so what retirement researchers really worry about is that a period like that stretches on for a period of 2 or 3 years or even longer. And if the retiree is simultaneously pulling too much from that portfolio that's dwindling, that is a very bad thing. And that can leave less, leave fewer assets in place to recover and heal themselves when the market eventually does. Mack: One of WealthTrack guests, Mark Cortazzo, who I know you know, is a financial planner, has given us two matching portfolios, equal amounts of money, but showed what happens if you retire in a down market like 2022 versus a market where the stocks and bond prices do really well afterwards. And it can just be devastating in those first couple of years of what happens to you and how quickly you can run out of money.
Benz: Well, that's absolutely true. And that's where we got the 4% guideline for safe withdrawal rates from, where William Bengen looked back over market history and tried to identify, well, what would have been the worst period in market history to have retired into. And he identified the period of the late 1960s to early 70s as the worst starting period in modern market history, because you had a convergence of bad events where you had the '73 '74 bear market for equities, which some of your viewers may remember, you had high inflation after that, and then rising interest rates to help curtail inflation.
And that, of course, clobbered bond prices during that period. So that's the period when researchers look back into history that they home in on as the type of environment when you want to be very, very careful. I think it's too soon to say whether we're sort of in a period like that. But coming into 2022, there were certainly a lot of storm clouds gathering for new retirees specifically that we had very low yields on fixed income and cash securities. So there just wasn't much of a buffer for bond investors. When bond prices decline, they felt the full brunt of that price decline because there wasn't much of a yield there to cushion the losses.
Mack: So, Christine, let's take that worst-case scenario that we are in a period where we could be going into like a lost decade or a period, as you just described in the 1970s, for instance, of high inflation, poor market results. What do we do? Benz: Well, I think two key things. So if you are accumulating assets for retirement, if you're not yet retired, don't worry about it. That this sort of environment is your friend accumulating assets at lower prices. But if you are someone who is just on the cusp of retirement or you've just retired, I would say that a couple of key strategies can come into play.
One is if you can find a way to reduce your withdrawals in those bad market years that redounds to the benefit of the sustainability of your plan. So if you can pull in your belt a little bit in those tough years, that's the first thing you can think about. And then the second thing you can think about is just make sure that you've built a portfolio that includes safe assets that you could spend from. If we go through a period where stocks go down and stay down and we have, say, another lost decade like we had in the early 2000s, the idea would be that you would build yourself kind of a runway of cash investments, perhaps short and intermediate term, high-quality bonds that you could effectively spend through rather than having to touch your depreciated equity assets.
So those are the two things: curtail withdrawals if you possibly can, and also build a portfolio that includes safer assets that you could pull your withdrawals from. Mack: You were talking about yields and one of the retirement blind spots that would have been operative a couple of years ago is the low-yield risk. Now that's changed. So how much of a risk are yields now? Benz: Well, it's gotten so much better. We had this war on savers going on for the past couple of decades, really, where we saw this steady drip drop downward in terms of the interest rates that you're able to earn on safe investments. The good news story of the very bad market environment we had in 2022 is that yields are much, much higher today on all manner of cash and fixed-income investments. So you don't need to stretch to obtain a decent income stream from a cash or fixed-income portfolio. And I would say that this is the kind of thing that kind of ebbs and flows over time if perhaps we have a recessionary environment going forward.
I think it's a reasonable thing to kind of think about that yields could, in fact, drop from here and you'd want to be able to adjust if, in fact, that happens. So another thing to keep in mind, in a recessionary environment, if we see yields on safe investments drop, we will probably also see the prices of higher risk, fixed income securities see price declines as well, because we typically see them move in sympathy with equity markets during recessionary environments. So for me, that's kind of a caution against overly gravitating toward higher yielding, lower quality fixed income securities because they do tend to be pretty equity-like and do tend to respond negatively in a recessionary environment. Mack: You know, as you mentioned, if interest rates do drop, which they do, if we do go into a recession, then the longer-term high-quality bonds like Treasuries will do extremely well because bond prices go up when interest rates drop. Benz: Definitely the high-quality fixed income is just a superb ballast for equity portfolios. We saw it in the great financial crisis. My guess is that in some other recessionary environment or economic shock, we would see a similar pattern where high-quality bonds would really earn their keep.
Mack: Now, another retirement blind spot that you've mentioned, which is quite real now is inflation risk. How can we resolve how can we mitigate the inflation risk? Benz: It's a huge risk factor. It's a risk factor for all consumers, people of all ages. But I think of retirees in some ways as being especially vulnerable for a few key reasons. Some of the categories that older adults spend more on, notably health care, have historically been inflating at a higher, even higher rate than the general inflation rate. So that's one risk factor. Another risk factor is that if you have safe investments in your portfolio and retirees inevitably do and should have safer assets in their portfolio like cash, like bonds, Well, on an inflation-adjusted basis, you're going to kind of get eaten alive.
Your purchasing power will be gobbled up. So that's another reason that older adults tend to be more vulnerable. And then a key issue is that even though a portion of your income stream in retirement is going to receive an inflation adjustment, so specifically, your Social Security benefits will get a very nice bump up. We saw Social Security working exactly as we would hope over the past year in this inflationary environment, The portion of your portfolio that you're withdrawing for your living expenses is not automatically insulated against inflation, which is why it's so valuable to think about adding that inflation insulation to the portfolio.
Mack: And give us some ideas of adding inflation protection to your portfolio. What would you suggest that we look at? Benz: Well, a couple of key categories. One is within that fixed income position, the fixed income allocation, I would hold a complement of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and or I Bonds. And when we look at the allocations that my colleagues in Morningstar Investment Management would recommend, they would typically say 25 or 30% of a retiree's fixed income holdings should go in bonds that have those explicit inflation protections. Mack: That's a fairly sizable portion. That's a quarter or more of your fixed income. Yeah. Benz: And probably more than many retirees have. I tend to like the short-term TIPS, short-term inflation-protected bonds because they provide more pure inflation protection without a lot of the interest rate volatility that come along with intermediate-term TIPS.
But retirees should check out that within their fixed income holdings and then equities, we know over long time periods, even though they're by no means any sort of an inflation hedge, they do tend to outearn inflation over long periods of time. We typically see that equity return being higher than the inflation rate. I would expect that that pattern will likely persist into the future, which is one reason why I would say even conservative retirees should take steps to hold stocks in their portfolios simply because they need that growth potential that comes along with an equity portfolio. Mack: And Christine, as far as the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, you can buy them directly, you know, at Treasury Direct.gov, but you're talking about funds. So what are some of the funds that Morningstar recommends to buy TIPS. Benz: So investors can go either route. I would keep it very plain vanilla here, and that's probably a recurrent theme with me. I tend to like the funds that give you a lot of diversification and very low costs.
So most of the big firms do run good quality core and even short-term TIPS funds. One I recommend and to the extent that I put together model portfolios: Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities is a fund I really like because of its rock bottom costs and kind of a no-nonsense approach to portfolio construction. So that's a good strategy and I think one that can make sense in retiree portfolios. Mack: And you mentioned another blind spot is health care and long-term care risk, especially. Describe how significant that is and also how we can mitigate it. Benz: Many people think, oh, I'm Medicare eligible, I'm home free.
But Fidelity does these annual reports on how much a 65-year-old couple will expect to spend in health care outlays, out-of-pocket health care outlays over their retirement time horizon. And the most recent run came around, came in around 315,000 for that 65-year-old couple. And importantly, that does not factor in long-term care expenses. So it's a big number. A couple of key messages is, one, you're not paying for it all at once that, you know, typically will be paying for it on an ongoing basis.
And your health care costs can really vary a lot, certainly by your own health situation. But also geography is a big swing factor that in more expensive geographies, certainly in big urban centers, people tend to spend more on health care. They may receive higher quality health care, but they will pay for it. So kind of customizing your own situation, thinking about your own situation, certainly to the extent that people are still accumulating assets for retirement, to the extent that they can be mindful about setting aside a component of their retirement assets to help meet health care needs explicitly can make a lot of sense.
I'm a huge believer in health savings accounts for people who are covered by a high-deductible health care plan. If you can start on this when you're young, fund that HSA to the max and then that is like gold for you coming into retirement because the funds go in pre-tax, they accumulate and can be invested, accumulate interest on a tax-free basis and then their tax free withdrawals for health care expenses. So it's just a terrific account type to bring into retirement, but you need to be covered by a high deductible health care plan in order to be able to contribute to one. Mack: No the HSAs are fabulous. But for retirees, for people who are on Medicare, I mean, they really need a good supplemental health insurance plan. Benz: Absolutely. And good prescription drug coverage as well. And it's also important to re-shop that drug plan every year because your own needs may have changed and what's covered within your plan may have changed. So even though it takes up a little bit of time, if you can do that, a little bit of hygiene every year with your coverage just to make sure you're getting the best possible deal given the drugs that you're taking, that can be time extremely well spent.
Mack: Longevity risk is the final retirement blind spot. And I don't know how you anticipate or plan for that. What's your advice as far as handling longevity risk? Benz: It's such an important consideration, Consuelo. One thing I would say to your viewers is that we see a very strong correlation with income and wealth and longevity. So my guess is that many of your viewers will be higher income folks who have done well in their careers, have amassed substantial assets.
That's great news on many levels, but it does tend to mean that you will live a longer life and will have a longer retirement. So for couples who are, say, in their mid-60s or individuals in their mid-60s who are in fairly good health today, I think it's reasonable to plan for quite a long retirement where you'd want your portfolio to last 30 years or even longer. And so that argues for being conservative in terms of your portfolio withdrawals, not taking too much early on especially. And it also argues for having a balanced portfolio that includes plenty of growth potential. So you'd want to have ample stock exposure, not 90% stock exposure, but probably some sort of a balanced asset allocation because you need the growth potential that comes along with stocks.
Mack: And Christine, we also have in our audience, you know, people who are not as well-to-do and or are aspiring to be. Since so many people don't have a defined benefit plan any longer, they don't have a pension plan. So what about annuities? Benz: And I'm so glad you mentioned that, Consuelo, because annuities, especially with higher interest rates that we have today, that really embellishes the case for annuities in a lot of ways because an annuity, a very simple annuity, which is the type of product that I would tend to favor, is just a contract with an insurance company where they pay you a stream of income that will last for your whole lifetime.
So it can be a terrific product. You don't need to have a lot of assets to have an annuity. And one strategy I really like is just look at your household's fixed costs, your very basic outlays for housing and food and insurance and taxes. Tally those up and try to see if you can match your certain sources of income, your Social Security, plus potentially an annuity, with those fixed outlays.
And that I think will just give you a lot more peace of mind with that long-term portfolio. It can get buffeted around. We can encounter more years like 2022, but you'll know that you'll have those very basic income outlays set aside without having to worry about your portfolio. Very basic, immediate annuity or even a deferred annuity that will start paying you at some later date can be really effective ways to embellish your lifetime income in addition to Social Security.
But job one is get the most you can out of Social Security because that's the best annuity-like product that any of us has. Mack: Is there one investment for a long term diversified portfolio that would actually address these retirement blind spots? Benz: Well, one fund that I really like, and I'm not sure that it addresses each and every blind spot, but Baird Aggregate Bond is a fund I would call out. I know you've had Mary Ellen Stanek on your show many times. She is absolutely terrific, Co-Portfolio Manager of this fund, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Baird. And what I like is that this fund is very high quality. So we've talked about, you know, the types of investments you would want in your portfolio in some sort of a recessionary environment. And this is a fund that I would expect to perform very well because it's high quality and low-cost fixed income portfolios.
Mack: Christine Benz Such a treat to have you on WEALTHTRACK for your annual appearance once again, and thank you for giving us two interviews about building a better retirement plan. You've really helped us tremendously. Thanks, Christine. Benz: Thank you so much, Consuelo. Mack: At the close of every WEALTHTRACK we try to give you one suggestion to help you build and protect your wealth over the long term. This week's Action Point is identify your retirement blind spots and take steps to fix them.
Are they retirement date risks? It turns out for many people that decision is out of their control. Sequence-of-return risk? Last year's miserable markets made us all more aware of how important timing can be to long-term financial security. Inflation risk? It's a heightened reality for all of us now. And of course, should we be so lucky? Longevity risk is a challenge for many of us. Depending on where you are in the retirement cycle, a few or all of these blind spots can be key issues. This is as good a time as any to talk to your family and your financial advisor about them. Next week we'll have another in-depth interview to learn about strategies you need to build and protect your wealth over the long term. In this week's Extra feature, we asked Christine Benz to share which financial blind spots are especially meaningful to her and how she is handling them.
Please follow us on Facebook, Twitter and our YouTube channel. We appreciate the time you spend with us. Have a super weekend and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one. Announcer: Funding provided by ClearBridge Investments, First Eagle Investments, Royce Investment Partners, Baird, Matthews Asia, Strategas Asset Management and Women Investing in Security and Education. Mack: Hello, I'm Consuelo Mack. Every week on WEALTHTRACK we sit down with great investors and financial thought leaders to talk in depth about strategies you need to build and protect your wealth over the long term. Join us on Consuelo. Mack. Wealthtrack.
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